Trade strategy for Gold...
XAUUSD (Gold) CMP :- 1393.3450
I've been tracking XAU/USD since 2nd of May 2019, when it gave a double bottom at around 1266.389 level with an impression of a harmonic move in formation. The retracement till 50% from the price rally from 12th Nov caught my eyes for such formation, that it might be a harmonic pattern in action since all the other odds were in favour such as global situations about the demand and supply levels for gold, Dxy falling at the same time due to technical and global factors etc. Thus I was bullish for Gold since last month and today on 21st June 2019, it completed its first phase of harmonic pattern's last rally.
Now from this what goes next is that if this rejects the resistance-1 at 1397.223, it'll complete the default pattern and will get the target of 1329.650 as first one and 1278.779 as the second target. Only levels which can make this fall void are the bearish invalidation level at 1375.307-1366.112 and the 'resistance support' level of 1346.743. What might support this fall can be the recovery of Dxy, which is resting on 200MA in the daily chart.
On the other hand, if this is an alternative pattern (another complex version of the harmonic family), then the next levels for rejections fall between the range of 1416.69 - 1427.893 (can be termed as R-2 and R-3 which falls near 2013 high level of 1431.207). Then the targets will be different altogether, that I'll update accordingly. So far so close, I'm looking to go short on close below 1387.826, keeping in mind the rejection at R-1 level and close of this daily candle. The stop-order would be just a few points above R-1, the reason being if this is breached, prices will see more of the upper side not to forget it entered into the bearish invalidation zone ranging between 1375.307 to 1366.112 (as you can see in the chart with a rectangular area).
Thus my trade strategy at glance:-
Short below the close of 1387.826 with SL above Resistance-1 for targets of 1329.650, 1278.779 (following up frequently for any changes due to global unrest going on.)