Crude Oil still not convincingly bullish
CMP : $57.244
As per longer overview, Crude oil was in our bearish setup since mid-May 2019 and expected to fall till $45 and as low as $35 if the harmonic pattern is formed completely (more about harmonic patterns in our upcoming blog).
Now as per the current scenario, due to supply/demand imbalance and as a result of an output cut, prices bounced from its prior first target of $50.542 ( actual target was 50.207), it seemed oil is going to regain its bullish sentiment.
But not so fast!
As per our original bearish harmonic projection, still, the price has to cross it's immediate resistance range of 58.412-58.093, which is not only 200SMA on daily chart but also confluence of the halfway of last month's price range which acts as strong support/resistance ( you can check more about this here - https://www.niftyanalysis.in/blog/2019/6/10/most-under-rated-supportresistance-level)
So any rejection at this immediate resistance and close below 56.444 will make the bears continue their move and prices will continue falling till our earlier levels viz. 55.809 (2006 low), 54.598 (pivotal target) and eventually back to 51.732 (2016 high).
Well, how I'm going to trade this? While writing this, prices already rejected the said resistance so I've entered short at $57.161 (aggressive entry). For safer trade entry, wait till close of this day's candle, or valid breakout below 56.444, on lower timeframe but not lower than 2 hours chart for the more valid close. The targets are already given in the above paragraph.
In case prices jumps up from 56.444, because of the global unrest still not resolved and crude reports pending on coming Wednesday, buy must be only after the close above 58.412-58.093 range for upside targets of 60.457 (also 2017 high) and 61.524 (2015 high) for the starters.